Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stunned the world despite clear warnings in advance. The Russian Army, inept and faltering in the early days, is improving. Bogged down in the north and east, Russian forces have advanced hundreds of miles in the south and southeast. In a recent call with French President Macron, Putin said that Russian forces intended to take the whole of Ukraine.
Putin also told German Chancellor Scholz that Ukraine was part of a “Greater Russia” and that Russia and Ukraine were “one people” separated tragically by history.
Initial disbelief that this war could happen in Europe is now turning into a brutally realistic comprehension of the invasion’s total horror. As more than a million and a half Ukrainian women and children have fled west to safety, Russia cynically now may be blocking where possible family escape routes are — except to cross the Russian border.
The most powerful array of sanctions in history has struck Russia, and Russia will incur enormous financial losses far into the future. Moscow’s leaders and Russian businesses are now denied access to global banks, markets and investments. The country’s second largest oil company, Lukoil, saw its shares on the London market fall by 99%. The Russian company Nord Stream 2, created to provide gas to Germany in a deal worth billions, has filed for bankruptcy and fired its entire work force. Sea combat around Ukraine, with tankers hit, has halted a regular export of Russian oil for now. Switzerland has shut down Russian access to its bank accounts. The Russian stock market is closed, and a ruble is worth less than a U.S. penny today.
I have no doubt that Putin has been very surprised by the American organized powerful, united coalition against Russia. On top of the financial dismemberment of the Russian economy, the NATO alliance, which saved Europe during the Cold War, has been rock solid in political and security opposition to Russia. Germany in the last 10 days has reversed a six-decades-long policy of trying to bridge between Europe and Russia. The EU has initiated a plan to minimize Russian gas imports over the next decade. Berlin has announced a plan for a major increase in defense spending and has now sent anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine. Finland and Sweden, not members of NATO, are strengthening their ties to the Alliance. The U.S. has sent troops to frontline NATO states to make clear the determination of our country to defend our friends.
Putin’s surprise may also have come from his erroneous evaluation of American attitudes over the past eight years. Our country was hesitant at first in Ukraine and Syria to challenge Russian threats, or we downplayed them. There was even an active American embrace of Putin from 2016 to 2020, a sentiment recently echoed once again by former U.S. president Donald Trump. Putin has looked at our deeply divided country, and he believed there was an opportunity to take advantage of the perceived weakness.
The next chapter for Ukraine is not written. The outcomes of wars are not easy to predict. With President Zelensky and the enormous courage and determination of millions of Ukrainians, there is a chance that this Russian campaign can be slowed — I won’t say stopped because it is too early, and it might not be possible. But if the Ukrainians stay in the fight, Putin and Russia will pay a higher and higher price for their folly. If the Ukrainians are willing to bear this pain, then we should share it and do all we can to help them recover the whole of their country and their independent future however long that takes.
Beyond Ukraine, we are in for a generation-long confrontation with Russia and its attempts to recolonize eastern Europe and undermine European security. Putin’s further strategic aim is to weaken the European-American NATO pact that protects the continent. He will continue to use threats, inducements and political demands to try to divide the allies. With the sending of troops to Belarus and the invasion of Ukraine, Russian armies will be hundreds of miles farther west. Those armies will directly threaten all of NATO’s frontline states — in the long arc from the Baltics in the far northeast all the way west and southwest to Romania and to non-NATO pro-western Moldova.
We and the Europeans have key decisions facing us. An immediate issue is whether NATO will announce a no-fly zone that would have Russian and NATO planes flying against each other. That does not seem to be likely. If the inspirational Ukrainian patriots keep fighting, if the Russians occupy the whole country, how can we help them? How will we support a Ukrainian government in exile as the country’s legitimate government? How will we and the Europeans deal with Europe’s energy needs as Europeans decrease dependence on Russian gas — now running as high as 40% of annual requirements for some countries such as Germany and Italy? Will the U.S. cut off entirely the 5% of oil that we ourselves import from Russia? Will Saudi Arabia and the UAE step up production to meet Europe’s needs? What happens if the war and rising inflation produce an economic recession in Europe or even here? What do we do about China, which certainly is unhappy to see the West unite so quickly to defend its friends and freedoms?
Now we and the rest of the democratic world have shown what we can do. Our task is to continue to do what is necessary to save democracy. In my diplomatic career, wherever I was, ordinary citizens knew what it meant to have freedom — to enjoy life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Their leaders often opposed and feared democracy — they still do.
We have our work cut out for us.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: W. Robert Pearson was an innovative diplomat, leader and crisis manager at the top levels of the U.S. government. He was U.S. ambassador to Turkey and completed a 30-year career in 2006 with the Department of State as director general of the Foreign Service. He is a frequent writer and speaker on diplomacy, foreign policy, Turkey, NGOs and development, and served under six presidents (four Republican and two Democratic) and 11 secretaries of state. He lives in Fearrington Village with his wife, Maggie, who also worked as a diplomat and served as a senior foreign service public diplomacy officer from 2000 to 2006 period.