The opening game of the NFL regular season, AKA September Christmas, is upon us: the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams play the Bills, who are led by current MVP betting favorite Josh Allen, on Thursday night.
Allen is the front-runner to win his first Most Valuable Player of the Award, but will he add that trophy to his collection by season’s end? Will Aaron Donald win his third straight Defensive Player of the Year award? Can the Rams repeat?
I’ll try to answer those questions today, as well as offer my predictions for the other major season-ending awards, the playoff teams in each conference and my eventual Super Bowl champion.
Strap on your chin-straps, everybody.
Most Valuable Player: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The AFC West will be an absolute gauntlet this season, and whatever quarterback leads his team to that particular division title — whether it be Patrick Mahomes or Rusell Wilson — could have a leg up on winning MVP.
My money is on Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Last season, Herbert completed 65.9% of his passes for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Over the offseason, the Chargers have done everything they can to try and improve those numbers.
During the offseason LA locked up receiver Mike Williams to a new three-year contract and drafted a new starting offensive guard in Zion Johnson. Elsewhere on the offensive line, left tackle Rashawn Slater looks primed for a second-year breakout, and center Corey Linsley returns after allowing just 10 pressures in 724 pass blocking snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus.
The pieces are in place for Herbert to make the next step, and if he can lift LA to the playoffs this season, he’ll be among the favorites for MVP when the awards are announced following the regular season.
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Last year’s Offensive Player of the Year was Los Angeles Rams’ receiver Cooper Kupp, who won the receiving triple crown by leading the NFL in catches (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16). Kupp was aided by the playcalling of offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell, who schemed up the No. 5 passing offense in the league last season.
Now, O’Connell is the head coach of the Vikings, and the player standing to benefit most is receiver Justin Jefferson. Already one of the premier young skill-position players in the league, Jefferson owns the NFL record for most receiving yards (3,016) in a player’s first two seasons in the league.
With O’Connell calling plays, Jefferson will be the focal point of the Minnesota offense. Don’t be surprised if he wins the triple crown this season, a feat that would assuredly also make him OPOY.
Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys
Last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, Micah Parsons came in to Dallas as a linebacker, but he quickly developed into one of the best edge-rushers in the league when the Cowboys needed some help getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Parsons — who is a blur off the edge — totaled 13 sacks as a rookie in 2021. This offseason, he set a personal goal of breaking the NFL’s single-season sack record (22.5). That’s the type of ambition you want from your defensive leader.
There’s also precedent of a player winning DROY and DPOY in back-to-back seasons. In 2013, Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly won Defensive Player of the Year after being named the league’s best defensive rookie in 2012.
AFC Playoffs
Here are the teams I have winning their respective divisions and earning wild card spots:
NFC Playoffs
Here are the teams I have winning their respective divisions and earning wild card spots:
Super Bowl: Chargers vs. Packers
In what would be one of the best quarterback matchups in recent Super Bowl memory, Justin Herbert battles Aaron Rodgers for the title come season’s end.
The Chargers have made improvements on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, where they have signed splash free agents J.C. Jackson and Sebastian Joseph-Day to go with returning veterans Joey Bosa and Derwin James. With Justin Herbert at the helm offensively, I feel confident in making the Chargers my AFC Champions.
On the other side, I like Green Bay to emerge from a Wild Card spot to make the Super Bowl. This year’s Packers team reminds me of the 2015 Panthers — elite quarterback, elite defense, no receivers. It worked out O.K. for Carolina, which made it to the Super Bowl that season before falling to the Broncos. If there’s anyone you want with the ball with your season on the line, it’s Aaron Rodgers.
As far as the winner, I’ll take the Chargers to defeat the Packers, giving Herbert his first of what could be many Super Bowl rings.
Sports Editor Jeremy Vernon can be reached at jeremy@chathamnr.com or on Twitter at @jbo_vernon.