Before the Academy Awards are handed out this Sunday evening, here’s my annual primer of what/who will and should win each of the six main categories, plus what actor or film was robbed of their rightful Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Nominees: “Black Panther”; “BlacKkKlansman”; “Bohemian Rhapsody”; “The Favourite”; “Roma”; “Green Book”; “A Star is Born”; “Vice”
What Will Win: It’s a two-film race between “Green Book,” winner of the Producers Guild Award, and “Roma,” whose director won the Directors Guild Award. Both awards are perennial Best Picture Oscar predictors, but something’s gotta give. The fact that “Roma” also garnered two unexpected acting nominations (see below) suggests strong support for the film among Academy voters, so I give it the narrow edge.
What Should Win: My second favorite film of 2018 is “Roma,” and director Alfonso Cuaron’s semi-autobiographical remembrance of his childhood in early 1970s Mexico is one of this year’s most visually vibrant films. easily outranking the other nominees.
What Got Snubbed: My best film of last year is “First Man,” director Damien Chazelle’s affecting, visually stunning study of Neil Armstrong and the race to the moon. It brilliantly conveys the grimy, harrowing mechanics of the early space program, while also offering a meditative portrait of a taciturn yet resolute hero.
Best Director
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”); Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”); Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”); Adam McKay (“Vice”); Pawel Pawlikowski (“Cold War”)
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron won the Directors Guild Award, making him a shoo-in for the Oscar.
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron is the deserved winner. His black-and-white recreation of the bustle and brio of Mexico City, with its street vendors and neon nightlife and opulent movie houses, is one of this year’s most visually vibrant films.
Who Got Snubbed: Damien Chazelle offers some of the most arresting action sequences last year in “First Man,” as almost every rocket launch is shot from the claustrophobic perspective of being inside the spacecraft, where every roar, shutter, and creak of the capsule carries palpable dread.
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (“Vice”); Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”); Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”); Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”); Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)
Who Will Win: In an uncommonly weak field, Rami Malek swept the Golden Globes, British Academy, and Screen Actors Guild awards for his portrayals of Freddie Mercury in “Bohemian Rhapsody.” He’s a virtual lock to take home an Oscar, too.
Who Should Win: Christian Bale’s uncanny mimicry of Dick Cheney would be enough to win in most years. But Bradley Cooper is tremendous in “A Star is Born,” effectively acting and singing while also directing the film. He deserves to win among these nominees.
Who Got Snubbed: Ethan Hawke’s snub for “First Reformed” is one of the year’s most egregious oversights (along with the film not garnering a Best Picture nom). Hawke not only merits a nomination, but also the trophy.
Best Actress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”); Glenn Close (“The Wife”); Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”); Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”); Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Who Will Win: Glenn Close holds the record of the actress with the most Oscar nominations without winning, and she’s the living actor with the most Oscar nominations without a win. Close won the Golden Globes and SAG awards for her terrific performance in “The Wife,” making her the favorite to eek out out a win over Olivia Colman.
Who Should Win: Colman was terrific as Queen Anne in “The Favourite,” but she also benefited from a stupendous supporting cast, two of whom are also Oscar-nominated. Close is the singular star of “The Wife,” and she’s the best among this talent-filled category.
Who Got Snubbed: In a perfect world, Rachel McAdams would earn a nomination for her underrated comedic turn in “Game Night.” But Toni Collette’s startling, emotionally draining performance in “Hereditary” deserves to crack, and win, this stacked field.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”); Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”); Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”); Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”); Sam Rockwell (“Vice”)
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali won this category two years ago for “Moonlight.” Like Malek, Ali has already swept the Golden Globes, British Academy, and Screen Actors Guild awards for his turn in “Green Book,” making him the odds-on favorite to win his second Academy Award.
Who Should Win: Ali’s is the third-best performance in this category. In any other year, Sam Elliott would win the Oscar. But Richard E. Grant’s tormented, searingly witty role in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” is head-and-shoulders above the competition.
Who Got Snubbed: Like his co-star McAdams, Jesse Plemons would earn a nomination for his underrated comedic turn in “Game Night.” But while “Black Panther” hauled in six Oscar nominations, one of its most-deserving didn’t rate a nom. Michael B. Jordan’s performance as the complex “villain” Erik Killmonger is what elevated “Black Panther” from an otherwise very good Marvel superhero movie to an excellent film.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (“Vice”); Marina de Tavira (“Roma”); Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”); Emma Stone (“The Favourite”); Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)
Who Will Win: In another stacked category, Regina King’s tremendous turn in “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which has already earned her a Golden Globe, will likely benefit from Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz splitting votes for “The Favourite.” Weisz, a Brit, won the BAFTA, but King wasn’t nominated. And while Emily Blunt won the SAG, she’s not nominated for an Oscar. King takes the ring.
Who Should Win: Choosing between Stone and Weisz is like splitting hairs. But Emma Stone has the meatier, more wide-ranging performance and deserves her second Oscar.
Who Got Snubbed: It may seem like an oddball choice, but Awkwafina is the comic heartbeat of “Crazy Rich Asians,” and her breakout acting performance is what gives the film its crazy cool quotient.