This is part two of thoughts on the Republican gubernatorial race. Last week I evaluated Mark Robinson, still the prohibitive frontrunner for the GOP primary, even if the last few weeks’ developments have bruised his image a bit.
But the fact is that several candidates have joined Robinson in the primary contest, and although each of them faces forbidding probabilities in their quest to languish the large fellow from Greensboro, their candidacies still merit attention.
The two men with the chutzpah (or delusion) to challenge Robinson are Dale Folwell and Mark Walker. Interestingly, both of these men share Robinson’s geographical base in the Triad, with Walker hailing from the rural periphery of Guilford County and Folwell living in Winston-Salem.
This is not fortuitous for Robinson’s rivals. With all three men carving up a finite cache of votes in the Greensboro area, Robinson will have an easier task in sweeping the less-trod expanse of eastern and far-west North Carolina. Simply due to political geography, Folwell and Walker should face difficulty in establishing traction in this race.
Folwell jumped first. I have harshly criticized the state treasurer, but his willingness to run against Mark Robinson does seem somewhat civic-minded. For his bull-headed ideological crusades, Folwell has built a reputation as a relatively serious public servant.
Commentator Tom Campbell speculated that Folwell’s running to prevent Mark Robinson from dragging the GOP to defeat.
I believe this to some degree, with the caveat that Folwell is an aggressive politician who clearly would love to be governor. Still, his standing in the polls registers at only 4-5%.
Compared to Folwell, Mark Walker's polling appears formidable. He doubles the Treasurer’s support — yet this still leaves him at only around 10% in the polls. But Mark Walker has long demonstrated a measure of political flair and a knack for defying expert predictions on his fate — for better and for worse.
Walker maintains a public image of a reasonable man in a party filled with extremists, his radical social conservatism notwithstanding. The former congressman would be an intriguing nominee if he (somehow) managed to upset Mark Robinson.
It’s worth pondering how a Walker or Folwell governorship would really play out. As optimistic people, North Carolinians would like to believe these challengers would advance more reasonable policies than Mark Robinson.
But what is far more likely is that Phil Berger would drive the state’s agenda no matter who occupied Blount Street.
If a Republican is governor, Berger runs the show. So, say, a Walker governorship would entail deeply regressive public policies.
If Robinson did not loom like a dark cloud over the NCGOP, Republicans would have a field of candidates that had the potential to be formidable. Both Walker and Folwell are savvy and substantive politicians and decent men.
Are Republicans so high on the intoxicating vapors of rage and hate that they’ll nominate Mark Robinson instead?
Yes, I’m afraid they are.