Chatham health official: County’s relatively high COVID-19 count not revealing

Posted
Updated:

Even though Chatham County ranks in the top 10 in North Carolina in both positive tests for COVID-19 and most positive tests per 10,000 residents, the county’s top health official says it’s not indicative of the virus’ spread compared to other counties.

“Health officials have expected North Carolina, including Chatham County, to experience their peak number of COVID-19 cases in mid-to-late April,” Layton Long, the county’s public health director, told the News + Record Monday. “As testing becomes more available it is not unexpected that the number of positive cases will continue to rise. It is important to understand that the raw number of cases is not a good indicator of disease prevalence in the community.”

As of Monday morning, Chatham ranked seventh among the state’s 100 counties with 274 positive cases and fourth in cases per 10,000 residents at 36.05. But Long cited three reasons why he says that number doesn’t mean a whole lot.

First, Chatham has been on the receiving end of more testing than other counties, particularly due to the mass testing at The Laurels of Chatham long-term care facility in Pittsboro and Mountaire Farms poultry processing plant in Siler City. The number of cases in the county as a result of this testing, Long said, has “predictably risen.”

County officials have repeatedly stated that the reported number of cases is not reflective of the true spread of COVID-19 in Chatham because widespread testing has not been done. Additionally, the state’s count only accounts for “laboratory-confirmed cases,” and DHHS has stated that “not all cases of COVID-19 are tested, so this does not represent the total number of people in North Carolina who have or had COVID-19.”

Second, per capita data is not necessarily accurate because not every county has had the same number of tests.

“If very few tests have been conducted in a county then accordingly, they will have a very low case rate per capita,” Long said. “Counties like Chatham where more extensive testing has been performed recently would have a higher rate of confirmed cases.”

Lastly, Long pointed to the lack of studies “for disease prevalence in the community at large” due to shortage of tests. But work is being done on that.

The county is partnering with the N.C. Dept. of Health and Human Services and faculty at UNC-Chapel Hill to conduct a several months-long study detailing changes in COVID-19 prevalence in Chatham. The study will use a random sample of county residents using the health department’s Community Assessment cohort to measure “how widespread cases of COVID-19 with mild or no symptoms are in the state.” Pitt and Cabarrus counties are also participating in the study.

“This type of assessment is needed to understand the scale of COVID-19 infections in the Chatham community,” Long said.

A state government press release said the study will be conducted “over several months,” so results are still a decent amount of time away.

“We know we need more testing of all types, and this research partnership will help us better understand the virus so we can keep our communities safe as we seek to ease restrictions,” Gov. Roy Cooper said in the release.

Allison Aiello, a professor of epidemiology at UNC, added, “These studies will seek to address some important knowledge gaps while building on existing partnerships.”

The county health department, Long said, will continue to emphasize the “highly infectious” nature of COVID-19 and its presence in the community.

“We know that our residents and businesses have sacrificed so much by following the statewide stay-at-home order for nearly a month now,” he said. “It is extremely critical that all Chatham County residents remain vigilant and continue to do their part to slow the spread of COVID-19.”

Reporter Zachary Horner can be reached at zhorner@chathamnr.com or on Twitter at @ZachHornerCNR.